It still gets me annoyed on a weekly basis –
that people cannot expand their minds wider than a crack in a door to see that both parts of this headline statement are true.
In “my corner” – I have many new friends among the recently falsely accused and they can get awfully close to stating that, “actually most rapes never happened, and they are all lying about it”. I heard this reaction when giving my speech about my experience to the International men’s conference in July.
In the other corner we see the #Falsefeminists arguing that women don’t lie about being raped, and that the criminal justice system is failing because they are not prosecuting enough of the men who are reported to the police.
Let’s put down my favourite statistics of the year 2017 and lay to rest the myths attached.
85,000 women, and 12,000 men are estimated to have been raped in 2017.
These figures come from the British Crime Survey (BCS) and are extrapolations taken from a large [41,000] person interview/self reporting programme conducted every year since 1988.
Many angry activists dispute the number, based on the feeling that 85,000 is either way too high, or too low as a total for the UK.
(they don’t argue about the 12,000 male victims figure much).
The same survey – as quoted by Rape Crisis, also calculates that 15% reported these rapes to the police… This means that a higher percentage than previous years, bravely chose to reveal the details of their actual rape to the police and took on the horrible role of main witness in a court and police process that would inevitably exacerbate their trauma.
Is it any wonder that 72,000 women did not go to the police?
ALL four of the women I know who have told me they have been raped never reported it to the police.
So far the feminists with whom I have discussed these figures seem to be murmuring and wondering what my point is. I have asked them, “Do you dispute these British Crime Survey figures?”
They have been very cagey about answering, perhaps sensing a trap? – and yes, in a way it is a trap. The figures are, I believe accurate, and definitely as accurate as any research we ever get.
For the sake of avoiding silly extremist arguments we should dismiss the non research based notions that only 10,000 women were raped, or that 200,000 were…and run with the BCS figures.
The other BCS research based figure that stands the test of time is that 15% reported it to the police. – Over the past decade this figure has tended to be a bit lower, but it seems quite possible that the survey is accurate in suggesting that 12,750 women actually reported their actual rapes to the actual police.
Most feminists I have heard argue rape figures have not disputed this figure.
The police keep records under strict monitoring from central government, to record reported crime. The chances of a crime as serious as rape being unrecorded when reported to a police station are frankly too near zero to argue otherwise.
They recorded 41,186 rapes in 2017.
Now some have seen the problem this poses for the feminist myth straight away
– Dr Hannah Quirk is a rational human being, but just one lawyer who states, that figures “cannot be assumed this way” – others are suggesting that historic cases being reported will skew the figures, as will men’s cases that are presumably included in these police records.
OK, let’s look at those factors.
Curiously the police do not separate gender statistics for rape victims but best guesses from men’s support groups are that fewer than 3% of male victims report their rape to the police. This disparity with female rapes (15%) is assumed to be the result of men feeling a much more inhibiting sense of shame at being the victim of rape. So, applied to the 12,000 male victims, that’s 360 men, in total, estimated to be a part of that 41,186.
Let us also suggest that historic cases being counted mean that a chunk of the, 40,826 women who reported rape, were not women who had been previously counted in any Crime Survey… i.e. that suddenly – of women prepared to tell the truth about being raped, having previously not reported it, 2017 was an exceptional year when maybe as many as 15% of those “hidden victims” suddenly decided to come forward.
We are in the world of guesses and estimates now, which only police statistics for “historic cases reported”, which are apparently not kept, could reveal a statistically accurate picture.
But let’s say that the proportions visible in the forums of the falsely accused hold good (there is no undue influence on this figure that I can see as possible) about 10% of cases in said forums are historic… – so let us allow a 12% error figure for that number of genuine reports – (so as to be very generous when there are so very many false reports that are historic.)
We can, having allowed for these errors, in a generous fashion, get to a figure of perhaps 15,000 reports of women being raped last year as being genuine.
and yet were are still stuck with that figure of 40,826 women telling the police they were raped…
So, we have tried to be generous to the feminist cause here, given that statistical errors could just as easily work the other way, but allowing for many other possible errors, stretching the statistical anomalies to their “help the feminists” limit…we might possibly get to a figure as low as 21,000 false (or non-genuine) accusations – i.e.
51% of rape reports made to the police in 2017 were made by women who wanted to be seen as victims, but are not.
I have many people, some supposedly on “my side”, telling me that these figures are never going to be accepted – that there must be errors in my calculations, that the British Crime Survey is completely inaccurate, and so on…
What is driving them to say this?
Simply put, I believe it is “the myth of 2%”.
That is – the #falsefeminists have, by media repetition, embedded this figure in your soul.
This story that only 2% of women ever make false allegations of rape is a repeated old divorcees’ tale that has become embedded in people’s consciousness – and it feels like we are being brave to try and counter this embedded myth with even a suggestion that it might be that 10% of accusations are false…
So frequently is it repeated, (as on Radio 4 today show this very morning) on the basis of ZERO research, and even worse faux psychology about women never lying, that any harsh reality comes like proof the earth is round to a world full of flat-earthers.
There are many pages of evidenced articles on why women choose to be victims, and there are ways that some of the motivations, such as compensation cash, can be taken out of the terrible reality we face, but nothing is going to stop women lying about being raped in a culture where victimhood can be so rewarding…
So let us accept the reality that many women go to the police and lie about rape, and stop being so blind to the realities of why they do this, none of the innocents in jail or whose lives outside are ruined, help reduce the number of actual rapes.
and I remind people – that all this still leaves 97,000 people raped last year, mostly still in silence, but only about 1,100 correctly imprisoned for that same crime.
Whatever it is that “must be done” – it must not be flouting the rules of justice to try and imprison any innocent man who cannot prove they were not on the planet’s surface for the whole of the vague year about which an accusation is made…
That bad move has been tried for the past decade – and it has failed everybody.