(post updated May 2019)
It still gets me frustrated on a weekly basis –
that people cannot expand their minds wider than a crack in a door to see that both parts of this headline statement are true.
In “my corner” – I have many new friends among the recently falsely accused and they can get awfully close to stating that, “actually most rapes never happened, and they are all lying about it”. I heard this reaction when giving my speech about my own experience to the International men’s conference in July 2018.
(note the figures used in this speech have now been further researched, honed by discussion, and are even more damning for the year to April 2018)
In the other corner we see the #Falsefeminists arguing that women don’t lie about being raped, and that the criminal justice system is failing because they are not prosecuting enough of the men who are reported to the police.
This is a carefully planned and maintained sleight of hand with words, and it is a classic “false logic jump”:-
“Women who have been raped do not lie about being raped” – is a fact.
“Women don’t lie about rape” is BS.
Let’s put down my favourite statistics of the year 2017-2018 and lay to rest the myths attached.
85,000 women, and 12,000 men are estimated to have been raped in the period April 2017- April 2018.
These figures come from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) and are extrapolations taken from a large [41,000] person interview/self reporting programme conducted every year since 1988.
Many on “my side” of the argument dispute this number – again on the false basis that “it sounds too big”.
The survey may have a slight bias towards encouraging women to report on rape incidents to include perceptions of rape that are not in fact rape – and that could then have caused a statistical error magnified in the extrapolation to the whole population, but, ultimately it has consistently, over decades, shown that total figures are in the 80,000 range.
The same survey – as quoted by the national charity, Rape Crisis – also calculates in the year to April 2018, that 17% reported these rapes to the police. This means that a slightly higher percentage than most previous years, bravely chose to reveal the details of their actual rape to the police and took on the horrible role of main witness in a court and police process that they knew would inevitably exacerbate their trauma.
Is it any wonder that maybe 72,000 women did not go to the police?
ALL four of the women I know who have revealed to me that they have been raped, never reported it to the police. In their position I would not do so either, for genuine victims it is a horrific trauma, often described as being as traumatic as the rape itself.
So far, the feminists with whom I have discussed these figures seem to be murmuring and wondering what my point is.
I have asked them, “Do you dispute these Office for National Statistics (ONS), Government Crime Survey figures?”
They have been very cagey about answering, perhaps sensing a trap?
– and yes, in a way, it is a trap.
The figures are, I believe, accurate.
As accurate as any research we can lay a single hand upon.
For the sake of avoiding silly extremist arguments we should dismiss the non research based notions that only 10,000 women were raped, or that 200,000 were…and run with the CSEW figures.
The other CSEW research based figure that stands up to the test of time is that 17% reported it to the police. – Over the past decade this figure has risen slightly but slowly so that it seems quite possible that the survey is accurate in suggesting that 14,450 women actually reported their actual rapes to the actual police.
Most feminists I have heard argue rape statistics have not disputed this figure. They have, unwittingly, implied that it must be wrong, going along with the pathetic statement by the ONS that they believe the reason the number of reported rapes has risen is “because more victims are coming forward to the police”.
– a statement that effectively flies in the face of their own survey facts!
The police keep records under strict monitoring from central government, to record reported crime. The chances of a crime as serious as rape being unrecorded when reported to a police station are frankly too near zero to argue otherwise. Particularly since 2006 when the “We Believe You” police policy of starting by believing all reports of rape has been embedded and become such a key part of their target driven culture.
So while the % rise in rape victims going to the police has increased from 12% to 17% – that means it is from approximately 11,000 to 14,450 as per consistent reports to the survey.
The Police recorded 13,096 rapes 10 years ago.
They recorded 41,186 rapes in 2016-2017.
They recorded 53,997 rapes in 2017-2018.
But the ONS shows that actual rape trend has NOT been rising.
The problem illustrated:-
These figures have since been updated by a keen CSEW researcher – who pointed out that actually, the tables adjusted for entire UK population rapes in all police areas as used for comparison purposes, should be 52,400 – not 85,000. But to be generous to those who get upset when their dogma is shown up, let’s just stick with the more well published legend of 85,000. Now, studying the implications of these figures, some have seen the problem this poses for the feminist myth straight away.
– Dr Hannah Quirk is a rational human being, but just one law expert who has stated, that figures “cannot be assumed this way” (statisticians should smile knowingly at this misuse or misunderstanding of “assumed”) though recently, on closer inspection of the figures, she has conceded my point about the “inexplicable” sudden increase in rape reports over the past 5 years while survey results have not budged more than an inch, – hooray!
– others are suggesting that historic cases being reported will skew the figures, as will men’s cases that are presumably included in these police records.
Notwithstanding that, the set of embedded beliefs, that prompt people to rationalise away the obvious, represent blinkered acceptance of received #FalseFeminist ideas…
let’s look at those factors.
First: Male victims.
Curiously the police do not separate gender statistics for rape victims but best guesses from victim support, and men’s support groups, are that less than 3% of male victims report their rape to the police. This disparity with female rape victims (17%) is assumed to be the result of societal beliefs which mean men feel a much more inhibiting sense of shame at being the victim of rape. So, applied to the 12,000 male victims, that’s 360 men reporting, in total, – estimated to be a part of that 53,977.
A figure so small the CSEW decided it could not be included in their statistics, so, unhappily for male victims, we can safely dismiss any argument that this is a significant figure changer…
Second – “historic cases”.
We also being asked to accept the argument that “historic” cases being counted by the police mean that some of the 53,617 women who reported rape, were not women who had been previously counted in any of the 30 years of Crime Survey… i.e. that suddenly – of women prepared to tell the truth about being raped, having previously not reported it, 2018 was an exceptional year when maybe as many as, what? 30,000 new historic reports were received? This, at its most extreme “generous to the Feminist argument” edge, denies all logic of the consistency of the Crime Survey, all rational thinking, and is really a sadly pathetic attempt to try and twist the simple figures to support the idea that 53,000 genuine rape victims came forward.
We are in the world of estimates here, where only police statistics for “historic cases reported”, (which are apparently not kept), could reveal a statistically accurate picture. But National Statistics are published according to a strict code.
My point here is that I have been EXTREMELY generous to the feminist argument, given that statistical errors could just as easily work the other way… and that extreme generosity gets us down to as few as 52% of police rape reports being false ones.
So, allowing for many other possible errors, stretching the statistical anomalies to their “help the feminist argument” limit…we might possibly get to a figure as low as 28,000 false (or non-genuine) accusations – i.e. it is entirely consistent with those official figures to deduce that a minimum of
52% of rape reports made to the police in 2018 were made by women who wanted to be seen as victims, but are not.
Allowing the same high margin for statistical error the other way, using the give or take rule, the figure could be as high as 46,000 fakers, or 90%, so please do not let the 52% figure fall into any blinkered received wisdom ears as “a wild exaggeration”. Talk to a statistician about sample sizes, margins and the mean.
When people who bandy about “rarity stories” say “you don’t have the exact figures”, aside from mocking them as they deserve, please point out that what these statistics give is parameters – outer margins – beyond which it is unreasonable to suggest the actual figures could possibly sit.
And those margins are: – of 53,977 rape reports in 2018, between 28,000 and 40,000 were not rapes, (rape as defined by women in the CSEW).
I have many people, some supposedly on “my side”, telling me that these figures are never going to be accepted – that there must be errors in my calculations, that the Crime Survey is completely inaccurate, can only have been extrapolated to include a limited demographic, and so on…
Accept them or not, these are the best figures we have, they comply with the National Statistics code of practice.
I have just demonstrated the answers to all queries as they have been raised. No one has managed to present any logical argument that dents any of this. All the other figures bandied about are based on either far less reliable and small sample surveys – or are just plucked from thin air.
For the avoidance of doubt: The Secret Barrister’s nonsense logic + wrong figures, support Feminist myths
What is driving the false accusation deniers to continue to deny this?
Not just the Feminists who also make stupid statements about killing all men, but those who would profess to have some understanding of social sciences and no apparent skin in the game of making out that no men are innocent.
Simply put, I believe it is “the myth of 2%” and the political agenda that they/we have fallen prey to.
That is – the #falsefeminist propaganda merchants have, by media repetition, embedded this figure in our souls.
This story that only 2% of women ever make false allegations of rape is a repeated old divorcees’ tale that has become embedded in people’s consciousness – and it feels like we are being brave to try and counter this embedded myth with even a suggestion that it might be that 10% of accusations are false…
It is very frequently repeated, on the basis of ZERO research and probably from Susan Brownmiller’s 35 year old thesis, where it was plucked from the air. It works upon the basis of even blinder faux psychology about women never lying, but it does work! – ( a 0% figure would be immediately seen as ridiculous as just one case would destroy it, pulling a figure of 2% from the air makes the faux belief in zero sound so much more plausible),
the net result of this hammering in of dogma over 40 years is that any harsh reality comes like proof that the earth is round to a world full of flat-earthers.
That there are male fake victims (like Carl Beech) is significant, but also not a significant figure changer… the overwhelming majority of reports (and fakers) are women.
There are many pages of evidenced articles on why it is predominantly women who choose to present as victims, and there are ways that some of the motivations, such as compensation cash, can be taken out of the terrible reality we face… but nothing is going to stop women lying about being raped, in a culture where victimhood can be so rewarding, and useful to abuser types….
Rape accusations have become a favourite weapon of misandry centred abusers, because it affords them the safety of anonymity, and a reliable shredding of their target male, due to belief in their story being enshrined in the Criminal Justice and Family Court systems.
So let us accept the reality,
that many women go to the police and lie about rape,
just as many women are raped but most do not go to the police, ever.
And let’s all stop being so blind to the realities of why this happens. None of the innocents in jail, or those acquitted whose lives are ruined, help reduce the number of actual rapes.
And I will frequently remind people – that all this still leaves, possibly as many as 97,000 people raped last year, mostly still in silence, and only about an annual average of 1,100 correctly imprisoned for that same crime.
we also have 100,000 families lives ruined by false accusations, victims of crime just like those rape victims.
It is one thing to possibly have your life damaged due to rape by a solitary sex criminal, it is quite another to be hounded and made career-less, child contact blocked, family broken apart, and witch-hunted to suicide due to state sponsored false branding as “the rapist” or “the paedophile”.
Whatever it is that “must be done” – it must not be flouting the rules and principles of justice to try and imprison any innocent man who cannot prove their accuser is lying, all for the sake of an “appease the angry women” political agenda.
That bad move has been tried for the past 13 years – and it has failed everybody.